BREAKING: NIELSON sends me the results of the recent poll

For immediate release:

Date: 6/6/2011

Subject: Nielson Brothers Polling survey of Sioux Falls  — Proposed Events Center

Contact information:  nbpolling@gmail.com, 605 496-0911

Website: HYPERLINK

Arena location is supported by a 2 to 1 margin over downtown site for new events center

A new survey by Nielson Brothers Polling (NBP) shows 40% of Sioux Falls registered voters prefer the arena site for the proposed events center. About half that number (19%) support the downtown location. Another 25% say the center should not be built, with 16% undecided.

While opinions differ little by party, age is a factor. Respondents over 65 show higher numbers of both undecided and opposed. For example, 24% of respondents over 65 are undecided, compared to only 10% of those 65 and under. In addition, 31% of those over 65 are opposed to a new center, compared with 20% of those 65 and under. With regard to location, 45% of respondents 65 and under support the arena site, compared with 33% of those over 65. The downtown location is favored by 25% of those 65 and younger, but by only 11% over 65.

“The arena site has more support but still falls well short of 50 percent,” says Paul Nielson, a partner in NBP. “The 16 percent undecided allows some room for movement, but with a quarter of respondents opposed, advocates for the arena and downtown sites may need to collaborate to make the new center a reality.”

For this question, NBP surveyed a random selection of 550 Sioux Falls registered voters over a three day period — May 23 to May 25. The margin of error is 4.2 % at a 95% confidence level.

Nielson Brothers Polling will release more findings from its Sioux Falls survey in the next few days — including questions about the Grand Falls Casino, approval ratings for Mayor Huether, and teacher salaries. NBP plans to continue its research and publication of local opinions as a civic resource. Interested parties may contact NBP with regard to questions and answers on past and future surveys. For more information, contact nbpolling@gmail.com, or call 605 496-0911.

 



28 comments ↓

#1 Lemming on 06.07.11 at 12:52 am

BID folks are probably crying in their ZIMA’s after reading that but it is kind of a no brainer. Hilde and company will have to drive an extra mile and a half to see Manilow, Cher and Lady Gaga.

#2 l3wis on 06.07.11 at 4:23 am

Correction; ZIMA’s with grenadine.

#3 Poly43 on 06.07.11 at 5:56 am

This survey asks these quetions.

Where should the new center be located?

If the Grand Casino causes South Dakota to lose revenue, forcing the state to cut services or raise taxes or fees, should a competing casino be built in South Dakota?

Overall, is Sioux Falls going in the right or wrong direction?

How do you rate the job of Mike Huether as mayor?

How do you rate Sioux Falls public teacher salaries?

How are you registered to vote?

Do you live in Minnehaha County?

What is your opinion of county commissioner Jeff Barth?

Favorable or unfavorable about our 3 at large commisioners.

Starts off with, you guessed it…WHERE. Not “Do we NEED it?” Not a peep on the yet to be determined….HOW MUCH? And last but not least, WHO’s goona fund it?

I still say when a funding package is finally laid out, along with how much this thing will really cost, parking and street upgrades included, this thing will lose.

#4 l3wis on 06.07.11 at 6:03 am

I would have to agree. It’s the same old dog and pony show, dazzle people with what it looks like, and they will forget about the cost. They must have hired a bunch of Harley-Davidson salespeople 🙂

#5 Poly43 on 06.07.11 at 6:18 am

It’s the same old dog and pony show…

Speaking of dog and pony, why the question about only Barth, when we have five county commissioners?

#6 l3wis on 06.07.11 at 6:20 am

I’m sure it has to do with him running against Noem. Or the fact he is a rambler.

#7 Alice15 on 06.07.11 at 9:01 am

You know what this shows me? This shows me the future wants this downtown. That is what this EC is about – the future. Not me , not you, not the Mayor – the FUTURE. Why? They are the ones that will use this the most for a longer period of time. They don’t want to spend their money at a parking lot. Cities that are thriving with young professionals have their entertainment immenities downtown. You know what that does for the rest of us? – sales tax revenue for roads, sewage, parks etc. Gosh I wish people would educate themselves on this and the benefits of the future instead of their joe blow six-pack mentality.

#8 Sy on 06.07.11 at 10:46 am

BID isn’t crying at all.

The Arena site has lost 17 points worth of support while downtown has gone up 4 points. All of which came after the Mayor’s AECOM study results and recommendation were presented. This poll was also before the Ethics Board cleared Entenman by saying there will be no growth at the Arena area even if we dump $100 million or more out there.

We have a divided council and a Chamber of Commerce who won’t sign on to the Mayor’s plan, the best they can come up with is “just build it”.

#9 Pathloss on 06.07.11 at 10:50 am

Thanks for the facts. One must look here for the real picture. I question the accuracy. Anything contracted from Huether’s office is cooked in our loan shark mayor’s favor. It’ll not pass a vote, especially once citizens discover separate undisclosed city litigation and potential liability. Huether can and will proceed without a vote. He can with Home Rule Charter. There’s nothing in city codes to recall a mayor.
Huether’s arranging for an ethics complaint on Barth. Our mayor has all the power. Later, he’ll have all the blame.

#10 Sy on 06.07.11 at 10:56 am

BTW L3wis, those questions are quite different from your other “Mysterious Poll” thread..Hmmmm.

#11 l3wis on 06.07.11 at 11:35 am

I noticed that. Do you think there is also another poll?

#12 Sy on 06.07.11 at 11:53 am

I think there is.

Alice makes a good point, what do you suppose would happen to the Arena supporters, the undecided and the “hell no” people if it was shown that the tax revenue benefits to the City, County and State are 700% greater with a downtown site?

IE…the question becomes: If the only way this project will pay for itself and then some is by locating it downtown, would you support that?

I think you’d pick up nearly all of the Arena supporters, about half of the undecided and a couple points of the “hell no” group = 62% yes to 38% no.

#13 Poly43 on 06.07.11 at 12:32 pm

….the FUTURE. Why? They are the ones that will use this the most for a longer period of time. They don’t want to spend their money at a parking lot.
~

By they, I assume you mean ALL you young professionals just itching for a place to spend your money? Guess what? You young pro’s will still spend money in a parking lot. Case in point. The Tyson Tim McGraw “event”. $10 to park in a city lot and $15 to park in a private lot. That might be pocket change for a pro like yourself Alice, but not so much for Joe BLOW SixPack. Keep (as george bush would say) “misunderestimating” Joe and the seniors on fixed stagnant incomes. See where it gets you.

#14 Scott on 06.07.11 at 12:59 pm

700%???

#15 Johnny Roastbeef on 06.07.11 at 1:02 pm

There must be two polls, the one I got had nothing about The Grand Falls Casino in it.

#16 Alice15 on 06.07.11 at 1:50 pm

I am not a young professional. My husband are your classic median income individuals, but we do enjoy entertainment and the things that surround that entertainment, and more importantly, we have kids. We want what is going to benefit them in the long-term and so we HAVE taken the time to read some of the reports and educate ourselves on things such as property tax revenue and how the downtown site could generate nearly $7 million MORE dollars in 10 years for our local school district than an arena site. Isn’t that important? Our schools? Don’t you think they need the maximum return after this year’s budget or are people just going to start writing checks so we can save programs such as Reading Recovery? Guess what? – you won’t find those numbers in the report supplied by city hall – you have to take the limited figures that are given and configure them yourselves. I knew someone would take my statement personally hence I shouldn’t have written it and for that I am sorry, but my frustration comes from the fact that people in this community are going to vote on this $100 million investment for our future that trickles down into things such as property tax value and our schools – and they are either taking city hall at face value or they are so intimidated by moving from the “parking lot” that they aren’t looking to the future or long-term.

#17 Sy on 06.07.11 at 2:23 pm

Yes, Scott. Per the Mayor’s own AECOM report that states $6.7 million worth of commercial development at the Arena vs. $51 million downtown in 2016. 761% if you want to tighten it up.

Now before you climb all over me for citing a report that I’ve previously criticized, please note that the commercial development numbers came from actual interviews with local developers and real estate people. The part of the AECOM report I have the huge issue with is the 34 flat floor space events that they suggested will come also in 2016. They got that info by talking to Global Spectrum and SMG, the two firms vying for the contract to run the whole deal.

AECOM didn’t ask the CVB, specifically Teri Ellis Schmidt who’s job it is to book these type of events several years in advance. AECOM also didn’t use their own IMPLAN software, which they typically use to project demand in whatever industry you are looking to study, ie Coventions, Concerts etc. Members of the Economic Impact selection committee were told about this awesome software by the AECOM team when they were vying for the contract, but for some odd reason they didn’t use it in the study..hmmmmm.

#18 Scott on 06.07.11 at 3:04 pm

Ok, so the report claims there will be 700% more DEVELOPMENT…not additional tax revenue. Not really the same thing. Sure, if true this would be a bump in property tax revenue…but I don’t buy for a second a similar jump in sales tax, booze tax, etc. when the same 5000 people go to their Tug McGraw concert.

#19 l3wis on 06.07.11 at 3:09 pm

I might tug my mcgraw later today. Cost to taxpayers: $0. Benefit to me: 100%

#20 Sy on 06.07.11 at 4:19 pm

Scott, at the Arena you about 3 places walk to to get a bite or a drink after the show.

Downtown, you’ve got 20 or so within walking distance now. The $51 million will include several more of those options. The jump won’t be similar (ie 700%) but there will be a substantial jump.

There’s no Starbucks or chain fast food places anywhere near the Arena because there’s simply not enough traffic to make it work, however there’s several just south & east of downtown because there’s enough traffic to make it work. You add traffic of a downtown EC and you’ll see more businesses come in and capitalize on that traffic.

#21 Poly43 on 06.07.11 at 4:44 pm

…we have kids. We want what is going to benefit them in the long-term and so we HAVE taken the time to read some of the reports and educate ourselves on things such as property tax revenue and how the downtown site could generate nearly $7 million MORE dollars in 10 years for our local school district than an arena site.

Alice, nothin personal, and I do admire your reasons for reading into it…but, those reports you’re reading? Don’t you think they just might be a little biased and full of pie in the sky projections? This town is not going to turn into a money tree because we might get an act like tug mcgraw here once a year. And even when a Tug does come here, all we’re doin is shifting dollars from one entertainment venue to another. If I go see Tug, I’m not going to also go and eat out the following weekend tip our local waiters. It’s called a budget. Most working people have one. And Tug leaves town with a cool $500,000 that the city will never see again. That’s a lot of tip money.

they are so intimidated by moving from the “parking lot” that they aren’t looking to the future or long-term.

What? You’ve never tailgaited at Arrowhead Stadium? Takin the kids there Thanksgiving weekend, two nights in a local hotel and then a tailgating party before the the STEELERS whoop the Chiefs. I know, thats a lot of money I could have spent here on Skyforce BB season tickets…. but 2000 in attendance in a sea of empty seats? BORING. We all have our priorities I guess.

#22 Scott on 06.07.11 at 4:52 pm

So again we’re going with the belief that NOBODY is eating or drinking before/after events now, and that suddenly there will be 700% new revenue coming in? I’ll buy that new bars/restaurants will capitalize on some income that otherwise won’t be spent, but the vast majority of their revenue will just be shifted money from existing establishments. In other words, instead of stopping at the Crow Bar on my way to join the other 1500 at a Skyforce game, I may have that primer at Scherschlight’s fancy pants sports bar attached to the EC.

#23 Poly43 on 06.07.11 at 7:43 pm

…the vast majority of their revenue will just be shifted money from existing establishments. In other words, instead of stopping at the Crow Bar on my way to join the other 1500 at a Skyforce game, I may have that primer at Scherschlight’s fancy pants sports bar attached to the EC.
~

This is the part that continues to baffle me. Most people don’t see it because the “studies” reflect on the line of thinking that new money will fall from the sky in waves.

#24 Joan on 06.07.11 at 8:55 pm

If people attend an event at the arena and want to go downtown before or after, they will. Back when I was married, once a year we would drive 70 miles to attend a country concert. We would leave early enough to dine in the restaurant on top of the downtown Holiday INN, then go out to the arena for the concert. I have heard rumors of $100.00 for parking, and that is rediculous. The people that I know can’t afford to attend an event and eat out/or shop both.

#25 l3wis on 06.07.11 at 9:54 pm

When I was younger we would ‘prime’ on the way to the concert. In other words drink and punk the chiva in the car on the way there. We would not eat before the show accept the beef jerky at the C-store at the interstate exit.

While I would love to see the place DT, it really doesn’t matter. The people who will eat out before the concert have already picked the restaurant they want to eat at ahead of time. I work at a place by the Mall and we get tons of concert goers that see shows at the Pavilion. At first, it seemed odd to me, but it proves a point.

We need to get over location and talk funding and voting on it. That is all that matters.

#26 Pathloss on 06.07.11 at 11:51 pm

Wow, lots of comment here. Nothing from Argus or TV on this subject. Maybe they moved because they realized taxes were going up from the loss of casino revenue and cost of a new events center.

#27 Alice15 on 06.08.11 at 9:14 am

Put it this way – there is an incredible potential for sales tax revenue, property tax revnue, etc to increase at the downtown location. Do you have that same potential at the arena? Absolutely not. They have tried to develop that area with hotels, restaurants, C-stores, etc and the property tax revenue has not gone up at all – even with the addition of the convention center or the renovations to the baseball stadium. Outside of Buffalo Wild Wings – those businesses are fighting for their lives. The Sheraton is maybe half full most nights and their bar is rearely open even when there is an event. My co-worker and I were chatting about this yesterday. There are roughly 12,000 people that work in downtown each weekday. Don’t you think that there would be a pool of them that would stay downtown, have some food and beers, and attend the event because they are already down here. Of course they would. This is what I mean about trickle down effect. You don’t have this at the arena location. And the numbers I gave for development are not pie-in-the-sky numbers. These are actual developers that have said they will break ground downtown with an EC. These same developers also stated that there isn’t a chance in hell they will develop at the arena.

#28 Sy on 06.08.11 at 10:44 am

@ Scott, yes as a local you know the Corw is the place to get hammered for the least $$, but if you’re not from here you will first look to what’s immediately around you or follow the crowd. I bet tons of people from out of town who attend shows or games see the BW3 is packed (since it & the Sheraton are about all you can walk to) and the say “eff it” and go home or back to the hotel.

And if you’re here for a 3 day convention….oh wait, we don’t get any of those anyway.

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