The Sutton-Noem affair

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BERNIE! BERNIE! BERNIE! ABORTION! BERNIE!

Well after all the talking heads were done spewing their rhetoric, I figured it was time for me to weigh in on the Sutton/Noem debate and polling.

While the polling did surprise me, I still don’t know how Billie will be able to close a 97,000 vote gap (that’s how many more registered Republicans there are) even you eliminate the people who will choose not to vote and some of the independents it still is an enormous gap. I think Sutton COULD win, but the winning game plan should have started 90 days ago when Kristi was horsing around in DC. The Dems do this to themselves all the time, they keep using the same strategy over and over and expecting different results. I still give the win to Noem by at least 53-55%.

If Billie does pull this off, it will be by the skin of his teeth and it won’t be because of Dem leadership which has been losing registered voters hand over fist for several years now.

As for the debate, I thought it was tie, and NOT because either performed that well, they both just kind of went off the rails on different topics. I’m not sure if either one of them is prepared to run the state.

Could Billie Sutton pull off the governor’s race?

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My only interview with Sutton. Afterwards I told people, “He is one sharp cookie!”

Well, if I were a betting man, I would still give the win to Noem, but a lot can change in a month.

First the negatives. Billie has an uphill battle on several fronts;

• He’s a Democrat. Though he tries to bill himself as a conservative Republican loving moderate independent, he still has a ‘D’ behind his name, and in governor races that hasn’t worked well in almost 50 years. He also has a HUGE gap to close. I believe by last counts there are 97,000 more registered Republicans in the state than Democrats. He also will have to work with a mostly Republican majority in the legislature (even though I think the Dems will pick up more seats in the mid terms). I also think that Seilor has a good chance of winning AG (that one is tight to) if they BOTH can pull it off and Republican voters also have similar confidence in that team, it can close the gap.

• He’s a tax raising Democrat. Not true at all. While Billie did vote for the half-penny tax increase for supposed teacher pay, it wasn’t his idea at all. It was the Governor’s with the help of Republican legislators. I actually railed on Billie for supporting it because he had a better idea and should have pushed it. It would have raised sales taxes a full penny, but here’s the kicker; it would have included eliminating a lot of exemptions special interest groups now have with sales taxes, it would have included a massive property tax cut, it would have eliminated the food tax AND it would have been written into law that the money HAS to go to teacher pay and NOTHING else. While I am disappointed in Billie for voting for the Republican tax increase, it really wasn’t his plan or idea. That tax increase can only be attributed to Republicans who have slowly chipped away at it taking money from teacher pay increases. (Side note; this is why you should vote NO on IM 25, it is not dedicated to tech schools, just a suggestion.)

But let’s look at Noem’s negatives, she has quite a few, ironically NOT much of it is her fault;

• She’s a woman, and say what you will about that, there has NEVER been a woman for governor in SD. I’m not saying the fine pigs in the Republican party will vote for Sutton because of this, I just think they won’t vote at all. I also believe that to be the case of people who supported Jackley. If Sutton can garner a large majority of independents and have a lot of under votes from Republicans he could squeak by.

But let’s look at Noem’s obvious problem, she is a do nothing legislator. She did nothing in Pierre and hardly anything in DC. And by not debating Sutton at all so far she is proving she has NO record to fight on.

While I still think the ‘Republican Light’ strategy Sutton is using is silly, at the end of the day it may work. But if he does win, it won’t be because of that strategy but because a lot of Republicans really don’t care for Noem.

GO BILLIE!

Michelle Lavallee; Money & Connections

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It’s no secret by now, if you want someone with a lot of money/contribution connections, you call Michelle. TenHaken did it when he ran for mayor and now Billie Sutton has summoned her.

While it’s great to bring someone on your campaign team who can help raise money, do you pick them as your running mate? How does a well-connected former Republican with ties to the healthcare and investment banking industry in South Dakota relate with working class Democrats, Independents and Republicans?

I don’t know.

I have often argued that the Democrats have a platform that stands up for these people. Worker rights, higher wages, education, health care, quality of life, etc. They don’t need to be ‘Republican Light’ to win over these kind of voters, they just need to get the message out. I guess we will see how this plays out in November.

Is Billie Sutton’s pick for Lt. Governor is (was?) a Republican?

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We checked on Michelle Lavallee’s voter registration to see if she recently changed it, but in past tense she is showing up as a Republican and has a very poor voting record.

I also found it interesting that Billie would pick a person who co-chaired Paul TenHaken’s mayoral campaign. While tapping a Sioux Falls Woman with savvy in running a campaign within Sioux Falls is a good idea, Billie really needed to tap a Democrat (you know, the party you are running in). I saw Heidepriem make this mistake when he did the same thing.

Why is it when Democrats run for statewide offices in South Dakota they think they can win as ‘Republican Light’? Either just run as a Republican/Democrat or not at all. This STRATEGY has NEVER worked, and I have no idea why the SD Democratic Party keeps playing this card time and time again.

Is it too early to congratulate Governor Noem on her win?