Governor’s Race a ‘Dead Heat’

While I felt last week that Sutton didn’t have a chance, some things happened this past week which have me believe at this point the race is a tie. If the election were held today I think either one could win by just a few hundred votes.

I have felt that Billie needed certain stars to align in order to win this, here are some important factors;

• Mason Dixon poll puts them at a tie

• Many internal democratic polls and some unscientific online polls have Sutton ahead by 2-5 points

• Voter turnout is predicted at 50%, this helps to close the Dem/Rep voter gap

• Sutton has wide support amongst his party’s voters, Noem, not so much

• Some voters don’t want a woman as governor, and while that doesn’t mean they will vote for Sutton, they may leave it blank

• I think Sutton appeals to indy’s more than Noem, because Noem is taking a hard right conservative approach to the campaign

• Noem’s negative campaigning is NOT working because it is painfully false, unlike her ads against Jackley which were true. This postcard below if further proof of the gutter politics the SD GOP plays, which just piss off voters more than anything. It would be different if Sutton was being negative to, but all he does is show Noem’s true record of nothingness.

• Trump’s rating is way down at 49% in SD. This doesn’t bode well for a Washington Republican like Noem

• Billie performed very well in the last debate, even at one point laughing at Noem’s ridiculous claims about Bernie Sanders.

• Kristi can’t swim (well this isn’t a bad thing, I can’t either).

This is anyone’s game at this point. This next week will be crucial to both campaigns to sway those last handful of undecided.

UPDATE: I found this endorsement ad interesting. Besides the fact that it is very generic and you can tell that Dennis doesn’t really know diddle about Kristi except that she is a fellow Republican (He should have just said that, “Vote for Kristi, because she is a Republican like me”), I found it interesting they would film the commercial in a high rise office in Sioux Falls. If you were the current sitting governor and you were endorsing a governor candidate, wouldn’t you have filmed this commercial at the Capital or at least in front of the Capital instead of in an office building in Sioux Falls? FAIL.


#1 Paul ElevenHaken on 10.27.18 at 9:39 pm

Noem by five points. Not close at all.

#2 78 RPM Taco on 10.27.18 at 11:06 pm

I heard from a credible Democratic source recently, that the Republicans have an internal poll which has Sutton nine points ahead of Noem; and I am not surprised by this given the Noem campaigns recent political ads, which suggest desperation. Especially, the one with Sutton’s neighbors, where they try to invoke fear and suspicion by having that rancher’s wife over talk her husband with some enhanced audio nonsense about living down by the river*…. I don’t quite get that one…. And now Noem’s campaign is running ads with Daugaard and Thune endorsements, too. Noem’s new ads remind me of Jackley’s reaction in the final days of his defeated run; but when is she going to have her all male junta backing press conference, however? 😉

There was a time when I thought this race would be close, but as long as something dramatic does not happen between now and election day, I think Sutton has this in the bag and he will win comfortably, especially for a Democrat; which means that Seiler could win too, thanks to coattails, which might not be as strong as when Kneip ran, but strong enough to usher in Seiler.

Trumps 49% popularity is interesting too, because I had read earlier in the summer that Trump’s South Dakota popularity was 61%; and that South Dakota was Trump’s third best state for maintaining his popularity since his inauguration, but my guess is that the farmers are getting a little sick of his policies…. It’s too bad that Bjorkman cannot benefit from this, but I think there are two reasons for that: One, the Bjorkman camp has not done enought to talk about ag and current trade policies; and two, Sutton’s success and Bjorkman’s weaker popularity proves that the two campaigns (Sutton and Bjorkman) right of center positions on abortion and guns are really not having an impact, rather it is the compelling story and image of Sutton and a misogynistic attitude againsty Noem, which are making the gubernatorial race competitive and winnable for the Democratic nominee. And I believe this is the first time in history, or at least since the 1920s, where the South Dakota Democratic nominee for governor has a better chance of winnning than the Democratic congressional nominee or nominees….That’s a new one…

So, order your popcorn, it’s going to be a fun and an interesting night……

(FF: 00:33)

#3 Linoleum Taco on 10.27.18 at 11:22 pm

In fact, there is a thread over at the War Campus blog site right now, where Republicans are already talking about who they are going to run for governor as a Republican in 2022, which I find quite interesting. My money is on Jason Smorgasborg in ’22, however, because most candidates run three times unsuccessfully before they quit and he would be the best “Bottum” choice after a divided state convention filled with the ambitions of Mickelson, Michaels, and Ten Haken, I think…. #IAmSoMeanSometimes 🙂

#4 White Panther on 10.28.18 at 4:45 pm

Noem is big about having Trump’s support. Farmers are hurting now due to his tariffs. Coindience: They finally get a good Democrat to run and she is losing?

#5 Jon on 10.28.18 at 7:43 pm

You really need to brush up on your too/to. Yikes.

#6 D@ily Spin on 10.29.18 at 10:06 am

More fun than a Weiner Dog race?

#7 D@ily Spin on 10.29.18 at 2:13 pm

I wanted to vote for Noem. What changed my mind was she announced days after re-elected to Congress, broke campaign funding law, misquoted Sutton on taxes, and would live a half day away instead of in the Pierre Governor Mansion. Obviously, a career politician and contemptuous. I’m not sold on Sutton but he’s become my choice by default.

#8 Outdoor Carpet Taco on 10.30.18 at 12:53 am

“‘Sutton: by default’….. He may live down by the river bottom, but don’t most of us?”

Come to think of it, won’t he be our first “River Bottom Governor?”….. No nevermind, that was BJ……