Does Jamie Smith have a fighting chance?

Maybe.

If you would have asked me this question the day he announced, I would have fell over laughing.

Money is the name of the game, and we could easily talk the issues, etc., but that is what wins.

But we are in strange times;

• Roe vs. Wade was overturned.

• The red state of Kansas overturned it in their state . . .

• Amendment C failed in SoDak.

We could also talk about plane trips, cheating and nepotism, but we won’t go there.

Social media today was on fire that internal and external polling show Jamie Smith is closing the GAP and is within Billie Sutton territory.

My family homesteaded in SoDak on both sides of the tree, I grew up here and my families have deep roots. No one was specifically conservative or liberal in my family, just caring, patriotic and faithful. One thing South Dakotans don’t like is liars and cheaters. Ironically, Noem could lose this race, by simply being a loser (and a liar and cheater).



14 comments ↓

#1 Very Stable Genius on 09.20.22 at 6:47 am

Initially, I saw this as a 63/37 race for Noem. I think Noem is under 60 now, but if Sutton can’t beat Noem in a somewhat blue year, then how does Jamie in a neutral year at best do it?

Has the Smith campaign been canvassing and identifying their voters and prospective voters (A true GOTV)? Do they know what their magical number is? If not, then they will lose, because knowing all of that is how Democrats used to win statewide in this state, but it now seems to be a lost art for South Dakota Democrats and is the major reason Sutton lost to Noem in 2018.

Also, don’t forget when many thought Weiland was closing the gap on Rounds in 2014 as well.

Is there energy in South Dakota for the Smith camp, I think so, but is it enough? His ad buys on TV seem to be intermittent which makes me question his money situation and whether his TV ad buys are being used to make polls rise for him at times to then be leaked to his advantage.

I am a good Democrat and so is Jamie, but until Democrats bring back identifying their voters and making sure they get out to vote and registering new voters to find their magic number, then I don’t think any Democrat can win statewide in South Dakota even if they are running against a possible liar, cheater, and loser.

I also think that it’s quite fascinating that Noem, who ran the strongest of the three (Noem, Thune, and Dusty) in the June Republican primary appears to be the weakest in the fall, which only further proves how activist Republicans in this state continue to be growing further and further away from what most South Dakotans want.

I also thought that Mark Mickelson’s recent public comment that Noem mischaracterized her conversations with him in the fall of 2016 in her book about both or either of them running for governor in ’18 was quite interesting. It tells me that Republicans see a weakness in Noem and someone like Mickelson my guess would love to see Noem lose to Jamie and would encourage it also, so that a Republican political savior like Mickelson could come along in ’26 to defeat Jamie. Because you have to keep in mind, that only three of the five Democratic governors in South Dakota history have been re-elected and two of the last three Democratic governors have been the ones who were not re-elected (Herseth and Wollman).

Mickelson’s recent comments also reminded me of something that Janklow did in ’86 after losing the Republican Senate primary to Abdnor that year, where in a press conference as a sitting Republican governor he chose not to endorse Mark Mickelson’s father, George (a fellow Republican), nor George’s fall opponent Lars Herseth, but Janklow said instead that both men were good and would make good governors. My guess at the time was that Janklow wanted Herseth to win so he could beat him in ’90, rather than wait util ’94 to return to the governor’s mansion. So, it’s going to be interesting to see just how much further and in-depth the obvious Janklow/Mickelson playbook gets played into October and November by not only Mickelson, but also by other Republicans and to Jamie’s advantage.

But, in closing, a Governor Jamie Smith would be a lot of fun with a lot of energy, I guess we will have to see if it happens and can happen without an authentic GOTV.

( and Woodstock adds: “All of Noem’s signs are at businesses, but businesses can’t vote…. So I think Jamie is going to win”…. (… “Well, at least not yet under Alito and Thomas”…. ))

#2 Fear & Loathing in Sioux Falls on 09.20.22 at 7:03 am

I’ve always thought that a Governor Jamie Smith sounds more like a governor from South Carolina than one from the Dakotas. While a Noem sounds like something small that you put in your front lawn and gets grazed and turns green thanks to your mower.

#3 VSG on 09.20.22 at 7:18 am

A fun side note is that the Noem campaign headquarters in Sioux Falls at 18th and Minnesota has two “Open” signs on its front windows, and my parents used to always tell me that if a business has even one “Open” sign, then it’s hurting for business. 😉

I also found it humorous that this campaign headquarters also lists its hours of when it is open in rather large print on the outside of the building like it’s some sort of business, which only further proves how much Republicans like Noem are all pro-business…. So maybe then a union needs to be started at this campaign headquarters, huh?

#4 l3wis on 09.20.22 at 9:37 am

I think you are going to see a massive undervote in the Governor’s race. While I do hear many Republican business owners sing the praises of Noem, I rarely hear working stiff Republicans say anything about her. I don’t believe she is as well liked as she may think she is. Smith also has a name recognition problem, and that is NOT good.

#5 Brain Drain from S. Dakota on 09.20.22 at 11:51 am

The SDDP permanently lost quite a few donors and voters based off of very poor choices the state party and candidates made. They will not be voting for Jamie Smith though a nice guy due to positions taken. Those voters and donors have either tuned out of politics, have moved out of state or are planning to move out of South Dakota.

#6 Further Fear & Loathing on 09.20.22 at 2:54 pm

Noem seems to be regrouping like Putin. She also recently injured herself. Did she fall off a horse? Putin once rode a horse bare breasted. AND, I know what you are thinking right now, sorry for the visual.

#7 "Woodstock" on 09.20.22 at 3:00 pm

“I Still say we should have ran Dua Lipa against Noem”…. “Dua understands freedom better than Noem and with so much better class”…. “Plus, she already has commercials ready to go… All she would need is a RV to totally legitimize her here in fine old South Dakota”. 😉 …..:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R07JrHGZbpk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUirCbVfSFg

#8 Fearing the Fuhrer & More on 09.20.22 at 5:37 pm

I see that Noem is running that stupid ad with her mom again. I don’t think she should run that ad. I hate it when politicians use family members to their advantage (Like putting family members on FB Live… 😉 )…. But wait a minute, I take this all back, I guess I want her to continue to run that stupid ad, right?

#9 Fearing the Fuhrer & More on 09.20.22 at 6:15 pm

This is a race between a guy who went to Augie then became Wilbur at Gigglebeess versus a gal who got elected to Congress before she got an online degree at SDSU. Which just further proves Augie’s jingle that: “… things have always been different here”…. While State’s claim that: “…. You can go anywhere from here” must mean that going from DC to Pierre is an improvement.

#10 ACinSD on 09.22.22 at 12:39 pm

VSG could perhaps sign up for a canvassing shift to find out more about the Democrats’ GOTV operations this year. There are phone banks, door knocking, mailings and lit drops happening every day from now to the election.

People who don’t like Noem are very energized and she won’t win or even come close in Sioux Falls. Smith needs to run up the numbers somewhere other than his hometown and the reservations to get over 50%, though.

#11 VSG on 09.22.22 at 3:22 pm

I’m a life long Democrat. I’ve been registered in South Dakota since I turned 18 in 1979. In all of that time, I’ve only missed one election, yet, the Party has yet to reach out to me (or my wife) this year to see if I’m voting, will vote, or who I’m voting for. If that’s not happening, then there is no true GOTV currently going on.

Plus, given the September 23rd beginnings for early voting, it’s too late for canvassers to be door knocking to ID potential voters in many cases, and mailings and lit drops are not GOTV, but the phone banks are GOTV. But who are we calling? Cold calls? Or, people who have already identified themselves as pro-Dem, or possible persuadables? Only the latter two really works with GOTV. Else, it becomes dangerous as to who you are encouraging to vote.

Back in 2002, an article was written in a national magazine, whose name eludes me at this time, of how Thune’s last minute “GOTV” most likely helped to re-elect Tim Johnson given the closeness of that race. Because both camps knew the race was really close (Like actually 500 and some votes a part.), so at the last minute the Thune camp started having people race through affluent neighborhoods, thinking such voters would vote Republican, and encouraging anyone they found to make sure they voted, but the problem with that strategy was that towards the end of the campaign affluent, educated voters, who had been undecided, were trending towards Johnson.

So let me reiterate once again, GOTV to be successful, must be surgical. And like a smart lawyer who puts a witness on the stand, such a smart lawyer never asks a question of their witness where they do not already know the answer…. There is no room for loose cannons when it comes to GOTV.

( and Woodstock adds: “Don’t you mean strategery and not surgical or strategy?”….. )

#12 VSG on 09.22.22 at 3:47 pm

Listen, I’m a life long Democrat. I’ve been registered in South Dakota since I turned 18 in 1979. In all of that time, I’ve only missed one election and always vote Democrat or undervote, yet, the Party has yet to reach out to me (or my wife) this year to see if I’m voting, will vote, or who I’m voting for. If that’s not happening, then there is no true GOTV currently going on.

Plus, given the September 23rd beginnings for early voting, it’s too late for canvassers to be door knocking to ID potential voters, and mailings and lit drops are not GOTV, but the phone banks are GOTV. But who are we calling? Cold calls? Or, people who have already identified themselves as pro-Dem, or possible persuadables? Only the latter two really works with GOTV. Else, it becomes dangerous as to who you are encouraging to vote.

Back in 2002, an article was written in a national magazine, whose name eludes me at this time, of how Thune’s last minute “GOTV” most likely helped to re-elect Tim Johnson given the closeness of that race. Because both camps knew the race was really close (Like actually 500 and some votes a part.), so at the last minute the Thune camp started having people race through affluent neighborhoods, thinking such voters would naturally vote Republican, and encouraging anyone they found to make sure they voted, but the problem with that strategy was that towards the end of the campaign affluent, educated voters, who had been undecided, were actually trending towards Johnson according to the Johnson camp.

So, let me reiterate once again, GOTV, to be successful, must be surgical. And like a smart lawyer who puts a witness on the stand, such a smart lawyer never asks a question of their witness where they do not already know the answer…. Because there is no room for loose cannons when it comes to GOTV… Especially, if your side, if it’s going to win, is only going to win in a squeaker.

( and Woodstock adds: “Don’t you mean strategery and not surgical or strategy?”….. )

#13 LJL on 09.22.22 at 7:00 pm

Sadly the lunatics in the national democratic party have eliminated the democratic party as a viable option in this state. I suppose the same thing could be said of trump in deep blue states.

As a conservative libertarian I would say it’s a perfect opportunity for a real American third party to arrive, but the special interest money river is just too deep to fight

I would like to vote against DopeyNoem but sadly I will no vote for a governor again.

#14 Sick of Fearing on 09.24.22 at 2:01 pm

I once had high hopes for Trump. His steaks were good and I once flew on his airline, but when he started to talk about shooting people on 5th Avenue, then he lost me…. but then he said he wouldn’t…. Lose me, that is….

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