Final Events Center vote prediction

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If you average out all of the polls done so far and factor in the money being spent by Build It Now, it is hard to see this thing not passing by at least 52%. And while I have been leaning towards passage, I just can’t get past the public perception and sentiment on this issue. It is in the toilet. I rarely hear a positive thing about the project, and this is from people who actually vote. Polls are effective, if the people you are polling show up to vote. In the Nielson Brothers poll this part caught my eye;

The proposal draws least support (35% voting “yes”) among voters 65 years and older.

This is the largest voting block. While I still think this will be close, I am going to predict this will fail due to high voter turnout by the older generation and poor public perception;

51% – NO

49% – Yes

Voter turnout will be high, and that is evident in the absentee ballots that have been cast (over 4,000). There is a chance for snow on Tuesday, but it is supposed to be in the high 40’s. Wouldn’t that be a kicker if we have a early snowstorm?

I predict 26,000 votes will be cast.

Posted in: Event Center, Sioux Falls

12 Thoughts on “Final Events Center vote prediction”

  1. GregN on November 4, 2011 at 11:53 pm said:

    I pretty much agree with your prediction. I was just thinking a few days ago that maybe the best thing that could happen for BIN would be a snowstorm, on the theory it would suppress certain demos from showing up. Not sure if that would matter, but it probably would if the weather was bad enough. I’m thinking the key here is turnout, who can turn out their side and who is more motivated. I think the thing that scares me the most is the completely ignorant voter. The wide swath of people who haven’t educated themselves but just think it would be cool to have a new event center and haven’t actually made an informed decision. Either way someone votes, I just wish it were an intelligent decision after having weighed all of the factors. I sense a lot of negative sentiment recently, but I don’t know if its just anecdotal and I’m just deluding myself. I’ve heard lots of stories about absentee voters loudly proclaiming themselves as no votes, but again it may or may not be representative…

  2. l3wis on November 5, 2011 at 6:09 am said:

    I still think it is up in the air. Could go either way.

  3. cr on November 5, 2011 at 11:48 am said:

    I was just over on Grange Avenue……

    COUNTY AUDITOR, Bob Litz, has taken his…. NINE Build IT Now signs down………….

    Technically, he was probably within the law having the signs on his private property, BUT how “politically smart” was it for the guy who is overseeing one of our city’s biggest special elections to have signs in his yard promoting a $183 million project!!!!???

    Hmm………….he obviously wasn’t savvy enough “to know better,” so, I wonder who pressured him to take them down……….??

    Any thoughts…………

  4. Alice15 on November 5, 2011 at 12:06 pm said:

    I know KSFY did a story on it and soon there after he took them down. Seriously – it takes the media to give you common sense? I guess so from the guy that looks like he could say “I must break you” (ie Ivan Drago) at any moment.

  5. Scott on November 5, 2011 at 1:09 pm said:

    CR, I made a similar comment on the propriety of this on the Argus political blog.

  6. l3wis on November 5, 2011 at 10:39 pm said:

    I heard a little bit ago that his wife was telling people they were her signs, so it was okay.

    C’mon Mrs. Litz, you and Bob are married which means you own the property together and live together. He is the county auditor. The signs needed to come down.

  7. cr on November 6, 2011 at 9:36 am said:

    If this is true………(and, I personally doubt it!!)

    She (and Bob) must have forgotten that his $80,000+ paycheck comes from the taxpayers……..

    AND, that he is not “appointed for life”…………

    BUT, must face the voters in order to keep his job!!

  8. Scott on November 6, 2011 at 1:27 pm said:

    As I was writing a post today about the EC (paulisded.tumblr.com), I started running some numbers and I can’t believe we’re even thinking about building this. We’re supposed to believe that the economic impact of this facility is just over $40 million, and that our current Arena supplies us with $19 (which is conveniently left out of the conversation). So the net effect of taxable income to our city will be under a half million per year, but our cost will be close to ten million. And that’s if we believe their predictions.

  9. l3wis on November 6, 2011 at 2:12 pm said:

    Scott – The economic impact stuff is bogus.

  10. Pathloss on November 6, 2011 at 2:31 pm said:

    Ill accept either way. I don’t think it should pass until the city returns to competitive bid process. If it passes, it will be hard to sell bonds because of corrupt contracts & the city uses ordinance 2-66 so it can’t be sued. Brokerages do not market irreputable uncollectible securities. If it passes, the city can spare an extra million for my punitive damages jury trial. Should it pass, Ill be even more disappointed with citizens who can’t seem to recognize the organized crime syndicate the city has become.

  11. Scott on November 6, 2011 at 3:18 pm said:

    Trust me, I’ve never believed their pie in the sky figures. Remember when the hotel tax was raised and somehow the Convention and Visitors Bureau was going to magically turn that million or so bucks into a hundred million dollars of economic impact per year?

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