Entries Tagged 'Billie Sutton' ↓

Interesting Governor Race Polling

A South Dacola Foot Soldier sent me this today;

I just got a call from a polling firm based out of N Sioux City SD (based on my caller ID).  It asked if I would support Noem or one of the following Dem opponents, either Sutton, Huether, or Seiler.

I had heard about a week ago that there was going to be polling out there in an effort to push Sutton into the race. But what I find interesting is they would include someone who I thought was now a registered Indy (MMM) and someone who lost to Rumblestrips. While they were at it, why didn’t they also mention Michelle Erpenbach 🙁

Is Billie Sutton running against Noem?

Well isn’t that the $64 thousand dollar question?

The rumor mill going around is that Billie is being actively recruited.

Is this bad? No, and while I prefer a candidate that isn’t Republican Light, he is the only Democrat in the state with enough clout to challenge her, especially if he gets the National Party behind him.

Noem is beatable, but you have to convice the indies and moderate Republicans in the state who haven’t been happy with the crazy Trump train she has been driving.

Hopefully if Sutton is running he will announce ASAP. There is NO time to waste.

What is Bille Sutton up to?

I got word this week about a special project some young Dem leaders are working on in SD;

In one post-election pitch, Sutton wrote that he wasn’t just building a campaign, but a movement that will “keep going and keep fighting for our shared priorities.” Sutton tells The Associated Press that he doesn’t have plans right now to run for anything else, but he says to expect to hear more from him in coming months.

All I have been told is that Billie is just one cog in the wheel and the project is pretty major. Sorry, I wish I had more.

I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Could NOEM be knocked off her pedestal?

In this story, Sutton pretty much sums up NOEM’s climb of nothingness;

It also helps that he’s a young politician who has stayed in South Dakota while his opponent is a congresswoman who has spent the last seven years casting votes in Congress ― a body that is not popular in any state. He has hammered Noem as an ambitious Washington insider who is running a campaign with money that she transferred from her federal campaign account. This was a practice that was banned in the referendum passed by voters in 2016 and reversed by the Republican Legislature almost immediately after.

“She’s just been climbing the ladder, one elected office at a time,” Sutton said.

She also has been pretty good at wearing trucker hats.

Governor’s Race a ‘Dead Heat’

While I felt last week that Sutton didn’t have a chance, some things happened this past week which have me believe at this point the race is a tie. If the election were held today I think either one could win by just a few hundred votes.

I have felt that Billie needed certain stars to align in order to win this, here are some important factors;

• Mason Dixon poll puts them at a tie

• Many internal democratic polls and some unscientific online polls have Sutton ahead by 2-5 points

• Voter turnout is predicted at 50%, this helps to close the Dem/Rep voter gap

• Sutton has wide support amongst his party’s voters, Noem, not so much

• Some voters don’t want a woman as governor, and while that doesn’t mean they will vote for Sutton, they may leave it blank

• I think Sutton appeals to indy’s more than Noem, because Noem is taking a hard right conservative approach to the campaign

• Noem’s negative campaigning is NOT working because it is painfully false, unlike her ads against Jackley which were true. This postcard below if further proof of the gutter politics the SD GOP plays, which just piss off voters more than anything. It would be different if Sutton was being negative to, but all he does is show Noem’s true record of nothingness.

• Trump’s rating is way down at 49% in SD. This doesn’t bode well for a Washington Republican like Noem

• Billie performed very well in the last debate, even at one point laughing at Noem’s ridiculous claims about Bernie Sanders.

• Kristi can’t swim (well this isn’t a bad thing, I can’t either).

This is anyone’s game at this point. This next week will be crucial to both campaigns to sway those last handful of undecided.

UPDATE: I found this endorsement ad interesting. Besides the fact that it is very generic and you can tell that Dennis doesn’t really know diddle about Kristi except that she is a fellow Republican (He should have just said that, “Vote for Kristi, because she is a Republican like me”), I found it interesting they would film the commercial in a high rise office in Sioux Falls. If you were the current sitting governor and you were endorsing a governor candidate, wouldn’t you have filmed this commercial at the Capital or at least in front of the Capital instead of in an office building in Sioux Falls? FAIL.

The Sutton-Noem affair


Well after all the talking heads were done spewing their rhetoric, I figured it was time for me to weigh in on the Sutton/Noem debate and polling.

While the polling did surprise me, I still don’t know how Billie will be able to close a 97,000 vote gap (that’s how many more registered Republicans there are) even you eliminate the people who will choose not to vote and some of the independents it still is an enormous gap. I think Sutton COULD win, but the winning game plan should have started 90 days ago when Kristi was horsing around in DC. The Dems do this to themselves all the time, they keep using the same strategy over and over and expecting different results. I still give the win to Noem by at least 53-55%.

If Billie does pull this off, it will be by the skin of his teeth and it won’t be because of Dem leadership which has been losing registered voters hand over fist for several years now.

As for the debate, I thought it was tie, and NOT because either performed that well, they both just kind of went off the rails on different topics. I’m not sure if either one of them is prepared to run the state.

Billie Sutton Interview; Re-Post from 4/28/2018

Could Billie Sutton pull off the governor’s race?

My only interview with Sutton. Afterwards I told people, “He is one sharp cookie!”

Well, if I were a betting man, I would still give the win to Noem, but a lot can change in a month.

First the negatives. Billie has an uphill battle on several fronts;

• He’s a Democrat. Though he tries to bill himself as a conservative Republican loving moderate independent, he still has a ‘D’ behind his name, and in governor races that hasn’t worked well in almost 50 years. He also has a HUGE gap to close. I believe by last counts there are 97,000 more registered Republicans in the state than Democrats. He also will have to work with a mostly Republican majority in the legislature (even though I think the Dems will pick up more seats in the mid terms). I also think that Seilor has a good chance of winning AG (that one is tight to) if they BOTH can pull it off and Republican voters also have similar confidence in that team, it can close the gap.

• He’s a tax raising Democrat. Not true at all. While Billie did vote for the half-penny tax increase for supposed teacher pay, it wasn’t his idea at all. It was the Governor’s with the help of Republican legislators. I actually railed on Billie for supporting it because he had a better idea and should have pushed it. It would have raised sales taxes a full penny, but here’s the kicker; it would have included eliminating a lot of exemptions special interest groups now have with sales taxes, it would have included a massive property tax cut, it would have eliminated the food tax AND it would have been written into law that the money HAS to go to teacher pay and NOTHING else. While I am disappointed in Billie for voting for the Republican tax increase, it really wasn’t his plan or idea. That tax increase can only be attributed to Republicans who have slowly chipped away at it taking money from teacher pay increases. (Side note; this is why you should vote NO on IM 25, it is not dedicated to tech schools, just a suggestion.)

But let’s look at Noem’s negatives, she has quite a few, ironically NOT much of it is her fault;

• She’s a woman, and say what you will about that, there has NEVER been a woman for governor in SD. I’m not saying the fine pigs in the Republican party will vote for Sutton because of this, I just think they won’t vote at all. I also believe that to be the case of people who supported Jackley. If Sutton can garner a large majority of independents and have a lot of under votes from Republicans he could squeak by.

But let’s look at Noem’s obvious problem, she is a do nothing legislator. She did nothing in Pierre and hardly anything in DC. And by not debating Sutton at all so far she is proving she has NO record to fight on.

While I still think the ‘Republican Light’ strategy Sutton is using is silly, at the end of the day it may work. But if he does win, it won’t be because of that strategy but because a lot of Republicans really don’t care for Noem.


Michelle Lavallee; Money & Connections

It’s no secret by now, if you want someone with a lot of money/contribution connections, you call Michelle. TenHaken did it when he ran for mayor and now Billie Sutton has summoned her.

While it’s great to bring someone on your campaign team who can help raise money, do you pick them as your running mate? How does a well-connected former Republican with ties to the healthcare and investment banking industry in South Dakota relate with working class Democrats, Independents and Republicans?

I don’t know.

I have often argued that the Democrats have a platform that stands up for these people. Worker rights, higher wages, education, health care, quality of life, etc. They don’t need to be ‘Republican Light’ to win over these kind of voters, they just need to get the message out. I guess we will see how this plays out in November.

Is Billie Sutton’s pick for Lt. Governor is (was?) a Republican?

We checked on Michelle Lavallee’s voter registration to see if she recently changed it, but in past tense she is showing up as a Republican and has a very poor voting record.

I also found it interesting that Billie would pick a person who co-chaired Paul TenHaken’s mayoral campaign. While tapping a Sioux Falls Woman with savvy in running a campaign within Sioux Falls is a good idea, Billie really needed to tap a Democrat (you know, the party you are running in). I saw Heidepriem make this mistake when he did the same thing.

Why is it when Democrats run for statewide offices in South Dakota they think they can win as ‘Republican Light’? Either just run as a Republican/Democrat or not at all. This STRATEGY has NEVER worked, and I have no idea why the SD Democratic Party keeps playing this card time and time again.

Is it too early to congratulate Governor Noem on her win?